Are the “experts” right about booking holiday travel now?


Lately it seems like many in the media are urging travelers to book holiday travel now, especially for the end of the year. A story was on our local news last night in the San Francisco area, and it’s a headline article on CNN.com.

From a travel agent perspective, the media is actually both too early and too late.

Here’s my alternative views. (And apologies to anyone who celebrates any holiday other than Christmas, but it’s easier to explain things using Christmas and New Year’s dates.)

First, if you are going anywhere warm, now is probably too late, especially for the best fares. Many travelers return to places like Hawaii or the Caribbean every year. If you really have your heart set on such a trip, the ideal time to book is eleven months out, as soon as the flights become available. (in fact flights returning January 1 and 2 are already basically sold out.)

If you do want a beach vacation, however, the best advice now is to try to work your schedule around off-peak dates, either midweek or returning a few days later in January. Or consider a cruise, where you only need to fly to a U.S. port.

Wherever you are going, if you must travel on weekends, book as soon as you can. (Again, earlier may have been better.) Many corporations close the week between Christmas and New Years, which means a whole lot of people will try to fly Dec 26 and return Jan 1 or 2, to any destination.

For that matter, many people going “home for the holidays” are likely to leave the weekend before, December 18 or 19.

This also means that a day or two either direction may make a significant difference, traveling on a Monday or Tuesday for example.

If you really really are flexible, waiting might not be a bad option. Usually at some point in the fall airlines decide which are their off-peak holiday travel dates and have sales.

Now, the point of these sales is to fill flights on dates when most people don’t want to fly, again, perhaps midweek or Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, or later than first week in January.

Thus, travelers who aren’t heading for a beach destination, and just have to get to their destination at some point during late December thus may get lucky.

Ditto anyone who has the flexibility to return after the crowds, which domestically usually thin out by the middle of the first week in January, later for international flight.

One regular client I had some years back even worked out a different solution. Frustrated by high fares and crowded planes around the holidays, he started making his annual trip home in mid January. When I asked if his family minded, he said, “Not since I’ve been spending some of the money I save on nicer presents.”

For travelers who can’t celebrate Christmas in January, however, one way or another, the airlines WILL eventually fill all their planes those weeks. So along with any presents, pack plenty of patience.

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