According to a statistical analysis done by Darryl Jenkins of TheAirlineZone.com and Joshua Marks of Marks Aviation in conjunction with George Washington University, there was a 40 percent increase in flight cancellations due mainly to the new consumer protection regulations on maximum tarmac delays that Charlie and others worked so hard to pass.
The analysis that these two pro-airline researchers produced shows that cancellations for May, due to the new regulations, were 3 times the number of cancellations DOT predicted for the entire year. They go on to argue that their analysis doesn’t include second order cancellations (cancellations that occurred later in the day because the aircraft didn’t fly as scheduled).
The two industry researchers noted that most passengers when asked whether they would want to wait “20 more minutes and take off” or “disembark and wait a day or two for the next open seat,” would opt to stay on the plane and take off in 20 minutes.
Both the DOT and I have issues with the study. First, DOT makes the argument that the study is “statistical noise” and goes on to point out that May cancellation were below the 15 year average. DOT also pointed out that 86 aircraft returned to the terminal after extended wait times in May where only 22 did the year prior.
My issues with the study are more generic.
First, the last statement they make shows their bias. You could ask a thousand people the question as posed above and most will answer the way the researchers want, stay on the aircraft.
Ask the question accurately, under the previous non-rules — “Would you rather stay on board the aircraft for as long as we want without food or take the next available flight to your destination?” — and most people answer, “We would rather return to the gate.” But, the question is basically the same since the airline doesn’t know when you are going to actually take off.
My second issue with the study goes more toward airline operations in general. Why did the airlines choose to board and push back from the gate over 120 aircraft that then had tarmac wait times of over one hour?
I’ve seen statements from a number of airline executives on this and most say something along the line of they need to get in line to take off or be ready to take off if the weather breaks.
Personally, the most telling statement was from a friend of mine who is a captain for an airline: “My pay doesn’t start until the door is closed and we push back. It’s my decision when we go and I almost always choose to push back so I’m being paid to wait.”
It seems to me that the airlines have an easy method to control cancellations due to tarmac delays. Don’t leave the gate until you can take off.
What’s your take? Would you rather follow the airline logic and return to the days of sitting and waiting to take off for potentially hours or continue with the time limits?
