While many travelers are still planning last-minute holiday vacations, others are already working on next summer. They figure that planning seven or eight months in advance should put them ahead of the game, right?
Well, if the object is to fly in business class to Europe, at a reasonable price or with an upgrade, it may already be too late.
As many frustrated frequent fliers know, business class upgrades often seem to sell out almost 11 months in advance, sometimes on the day that the airlines open reservations. These days, some flights with zero seats booked in business class don’t show any availability.
In the past, this situation just meant getting on a waitlist; more often than not, the space would clear.
But as yield management systems get better, getting on a waitlist 10 1/2 months out these days often means still being on that waitlist on the day of departure and ending up sitting back in coach.
This is mostly for two reasons —
First, airline systems are now sophisticated enough to prioritize waitlists for their most frequent fliers and
Two, business class sale fares are increasingly enticing passengers to pay for the confirmed upgrade.
In most cases, these sales fares can be had in the $4,000 or less range, roundtrip even from the West Coast. They cost even less from the East Coast and on some holiday periods when business travel is particularly slow.
The fares are hardly a trivial amount of money but they are much less than the unrestricted fares that generally are over $10,000; they are even less than certain “2 for 1” promotions such as those offered by American Express Platinum.
This brings up the next problem for summer 2011. For many flights, especially on weekends, the lowest discount business class is sold out, often with the dreaded words, “Waitlist closed.”
For just a few examples, United’s 2 p.m. flight on July 22, 23 and 24 from Frankfurt to San Francisco is already zeroed out. That flight is one of the best connecting flights home from Europe.
Ditto Air France nonstops from San Francisco to Paris on June 30 and July 1.
And several British Airways flights on September 5, Labor Day, are sold out of the cheapest business class fare London to JFK.
Now, at this point, while upgrades using miles may be either difficult or a lost cause for travelers without high mileage status, on most summer travel days there is SOME discount availability, but it might require a second choice flight or an extra connection.
For anyone thinking of procrastinating a little longer, if this year is any guide, the situation is only going to get more difficult, and the prices more expensive. Even vacationers who have decided to splurge a bit may still end up in coach.
Janice Hough is a California-based travel agent a travel blogger and a part-time comedy writer. A frequent flier herself, she’s been doing battle with airlines, hotels, and other travel companies for over three decades. Besides writing for Travelers United, Janice has a humor blog at Leftcoastsportsbabe.com (Warning, the political and sports humor therein does not represent the views of anyone but herself.)
